Friday, July 7, 2023

My Problem with John Hussman

 I love John Husman's work. I love the charts he includes, well maybe not the 3D ones quite so much, but I definitely love the charts overall.

But I have a problem with his analysis..

We have had an incredible bull run in interest rates since 1983.

Using relatively simple maths and some round numbers:

1983 to 2023 is a nice round 40 years.

Long term interest rates in 1983 were say 15%. The inverse of that is 6.67. That can be thought of as the PE ratio of the bond in a loose sort of way.

In 2023 long term rates are say 3.5%. The inverse of that is 28.6. That can be thought of as the PE ratio of a bond issued today.

So if the long term bond rate is an imperfect but big picture reliable guide to the relative returns of other assets, the running yields soughtt for various assets will have followed a similar path.

And if the yields required have followed a simple path, then so have the PE ratios.

You know I don't mean that they are the same numbers for all assets, and you all know that some assets will be doing materially better and others materially worse at any individual point in time. You know I am talking big picture here.

So this poses the question as to whether that undermines the use of historical returns as any guide to the medium term future. Why should we think that a benchmark based on periods when rates were aberrantly high is relevant? It is only relevant if we think there is a real possibility, even a likelihood, that there will be another aberrantly high period of rates in our investing timeframe.

Will governments and their institutions allow a period of inflation such that interest rates will need to go anywhere near the aberrant peaks of the past, or can we rely on governments and central banks to react to stop inflation?

The current experience says that Yes, central banks will raise rates so high that the economy will slow sufficiently that inflation will be beaten back to the target range of 2 to 3%.

In that case surely the expected range of long term interest rates is 0% to 5% and so the range of PE's of bonds is likely near infinity to say 20.

And other assets will as always in the past generally reflect that in their earnings and PE ratios unless there is some unusual event eg ChatGPT being released with profound global potential.

And how long will rates remain at an elevated 5%? Maybe 1 year in 7? Or 10? Or 15?

So when the market is confident that inflation will be beaten, how should it price returns and assets?

A mix of discount rates would seem appropriate. Maybe we thing 4% will be the cap and that next year rates will be 3%, then 2% the following 5 years and then a recession will take them to 0 for 3 years.

This sort of approach is used in valuing commercial buildings with a significant vacancy. A period and expense of getting the building to an average vacancy rate and rental income is allowed and is in effect deducted from what the value of the building would otherwise be. (#Covid, #SanFranVacancy and #WorkFromHome has thrown this methodology into some doubt, but not so much in the share market). 

So if bonds are goiing to have an interest rate of 2% and a PE of 50 in 3 years time what is the value of shares and residential property now? Will shares go from PE of say 28 to PE of say 50 over 3 years? Does that mean a $100 investment today will be worth (100/28)*50 = 178? And if the costs of getting there is 5% pa for 3 years or say $20 when compunding is considered. is $58 a good return on $100 over 3 years? 

It all depends on your faith in Central Banks and governments to hold the line against inflation. The stock market has bifurcated. Huge growth in revenue and profits possible for those best able to implement and commercialise AI (very high PEG ratio on those stocks now, maybe little growth likely from here), and the rest of the market as a whole excluding the AI stocks barely able to hold there value, and worse for regional banks under pressure.

Place your bets on governments running a tighter fiscal policy for the masses to reduce demand on the one hand and the central banks holding the line on rates until inflation is dead. The former is much less certain than the latter.

John has loooked carefully at the effects of demographics and their impact on economy wide growth, but there are a whole lot of other changes that have taken place. A few of the big ones going back are:

1 Leaving the gold standard

2 A fixed exchange rate regime

3. A floating exchange rate regime

4 The second world war

5 The Cold war. 

6 The invasion of the eastern bloc countries by Russia

7 The Korean war.

8 The Vietnam War 

9 The Oil shocks

9 The Rise and Collapse of Japan real estate and stock market

10 The collapse of the USSR

11 The "independence" of central banks (they are actually interdependent with government fiscal policy).

12 The 1992/3 recession

13 The formation of the European Union 

15 The dot com bubble 

16 The 2002 recession

17 The rise of China and 600 million lifted out of poverty, competing way more for  food and other resources

18 Falling population growth and the commencement of decline in population in developed countries leading to projected increasing dependency rates and requiring dramatic but gradual redeployment of labor and capital.

19 The Global Financial Crisis

20 Covid disruptions to global economies and societites

21 The war in Ukraine and the current inflation breakout.

Why on earth do we think that anything before about 1970 is really relevant, other than to show the rhythms of fear and greed?

The average return over the last 100 years is not a meaningful guide to the next 50 years but John seems fixated on that as his guide. It certainly was not an appropriate guide over period of the greatest bull market in interest rates from the Mid 1980's to 2020. John has updated his menthodology to focus more on "market internals" which is more about market momentum now rather than the returns over the last 100 years.

Many stock markets have not had the returns of the US market, I suspect mainly because the USA, for all it's faults, is an English speaking country that embraced a culture that has permitted it to dominate intellectual property in the forms of movies and software, for 50 to 100 years. This enabled it to ride the wave of English becoming the main language of commerce. Other languages like Spanish and Mandarin Chinese and Hind  just did not come to dominate commerce. The US experience is thus very different to that of most other markets.



A Bloke Losing 15kg

I am losing weight and controlling my blood sugar, almost never peaking above 9.9 at one hour after food.

But I am almost never very hungry as I still have snacks between meals and sometimes before bed BUT I am very particular about what I snack on.

I have a glass of wine with dinner many nights, desert most nights (and sometimes after lunch too or instead) and some chocolate most nights with my (white) coffee.

By controlling my blood sugar I will slow the progress of my diabetes, maybe even go into remission.

What follows is a rough estimate of reality. Reality is far more complicated, but this is a "good enough" plan that is not too extreme. It trades off taking longer in favour of being manageable and not extreme, and building good habits to adopt for a lifetime. 

None of the various measures are perfect for everyone but if you are pretty close to being an average overweight guy with a gut they are a good starting point.

As a recently diagnosed diabetic I wanted to lose weight and control my blood sugar. but to do that I needed to understand my blood sugar.

There are two types of diabetes. Type 1 (the old "juvenile" diabetes) and Type 2 (the old "mature onset" diabetes).  I am type 2, diagnosed at 70.

Reading Blood Sugar

There are three main sources of measurement used:

1. Instant blood test using a finger prick (reports as eg 5.6 in units mmol/L or 100.95 mg/dL.)
2. HbA1c done by a pathology lab at your doctors request which gives an average over 3 months with different proportions of the reading representing different periods of accumulation.  (reports as eg 33 mmol/mol (IFCC) and/or 5.1% (DCCT/NGSP)
3. Based on a glucose tolerance test done at a lab starting with a fasting blood glucose test. After the first blood is drawn you drink a special sugary syrup. A second blood draw is take after 1 hour and a third after 2 hours. This gives 3 separate readings and enables a determination as to how well your insulin is allowing you to process sugar from your blood stream. It helps build a profile across time and is like a simulation of what happens after a meal.

If you are diagnosed as diabetic, instant blood tests become a large part of your life, and the focus is on results in mmol/L.

There is an online calculator for converting between readings at https://www.hba1cnet.com/hba1c-calculator/ 

Because patches are so expensive for me, my focus is on instant tests and I have built a daily profile based on fasting, pre-meal, meal +1hr, meal +2 hr and pre-bed tests. My fasting blood test ranges from 5.2 to 5.9 mmol/L averaging 5.6

Diagnosed diabetics in Australia register with the National Diabetes Support Scheme (NDSS) and get access to lots of information and a free instant blood sugar testing meter and cheap strips (but the needle cartridges for testing a retail). You have to ask yourself: Why isn't the intense focus on educating everyone the moment they are regarded as pre-diabetic.

Patches

The most common blood sugar patch is Freestyle Libre 2. They are heavily subsidised in Australia for those formally diagnosed with Type 1 (T1) diabetes. They allow you to see your whole of day sugar profile and see the effects of different foods/amounts on that profile. Unfortunately they are not subsidised for T2 diabetes and are horrendously expensive. However they are available as a trial for AUD15 if, having been diagnosed with T2 diabetes you get a letter (get the draft from the Freestyle people by ringing them) signed by your doctor. 

This would be an invaluable tool for people who are pre-diabetic to understand what their current diet is doing to their blood sugar levels after meals.

In any event, they are an invaluable aid to seeing and understanding your sugar profile especially if used in conjunction with a food diary, even just for a week. I instead used the finger prick testing over a few weeks and at different times in relation to rising, meals and bed to determine my profile and see how to adjust my diet to reduce peaks.

Dawn Effect

Some people have a spike in their blood sugar in the early morning and so their blood sugar is elevated  when they wake and take their fasting blood sugar. In this case try to have your last significant carbs (which includes sugars don't forget) earlier in the day and definitely not late in the evening. If you continue to have high fasting blood sugars then you need to see your doctor about it.

About Me

I am a 71 year old male 184cm (72.5in) tall weighing 95kg. (210 lbs)

My Body Mass Index (weight divided by (height squared)) is 28.1 which is obese (just). BMI is not a perfect indicator. It is not appropriate for use by weightlifters, gym junkies, or athletes. They need more sophisticated measures of body fat that are far less convenient than BMI

My gut is big but not huge. My hip to Waist Ratio is 1.07, but should be 0.99 or lower. (My waist is 111cm (44in) at the belly button. My hips are 104cm (41 in) at their highest reading.)

On my reading, there are a few key facts:

1. A kg of fat represents 7700 Calories: excess calories taken in, deficit of calories to accumulate to lose it.
2. You burn calories just by living even the most sedentary lifestyle, and the number burnt basically depends a lot on your weight. Those calories are your Base Metabolic Rate.
3. As you lose weight your BMR reduces, so your calories needed to maintain your weight decrease, so you have to take in less calories again to keep losing weight.
4. It is generally suggested that you keep above 1500 calories a day so as not to stress your body too much and to maintain nutrition. Many use 1200 calories as a hard bottom limit. I'm using 1500 calories as my average with some days higher, some lower..
5. When you lose weight most of it is exhaled as carbon dioxide and water.  

So, I needed some way to determine a target to work to. I chose something that would give me a normal healthy BMI and  a round number at the top end of that range: 80kg.

My target is to lose 15kg and hopefully reduce my gut and get a better Waist to Hip Ratio to reduce my risk of early expiration.

Here is my process:

How big is my gut?

I kg of fat is roughly the same volume as 1 litre of milk

2 kg of fats is roughly the same volume as 2 litres of milk

4 kg of fat is like a 4 litre wine cask

So I want to lose almost 4 wine casks (4 x 4kg = 16kg) of fat! 

A lot of fat will be lost from my gut, but some will be fat from other areas. But some of the weight lost will be from muscle. (See below)

Determine Base Metabolic Rate

I needed to know what calories I needed just to maintain my weigh, my BMR. The traditional measure is the Harris-Benedict equation:

For men Men: BMR = 66.5 + (13.75 x weight in kg) + (5.003 x height in cm) - (6.755 x age in years).
For me that formula came out to 1819.

 
Then assuming you are sedentary like me you multiply it by 1.2 (an activity factor). So I am using a BMR of 2182.
That gives a false sense of precision, but it's a good enough place to start. Another formula claimed to be more accurate says 2251, but let's not sweat the small stuff too much.

NB: If you've been putting weight on you have been taking in more than enough for the BMR. Even if you are stable now but are overweight, you have taken in too many calories at some earlier point of time.

For most people, giving up the extra calories and taking a reduction of 500 to 600 below BMR is doable. I find snacks of air fried chicken or boiled eggs or almonds keep the hunger away. If I have eggs for breakfast rather than cereal I have a whole fruit snack for morning tea. (but only 1/2 if its a banana, too many carbs otherwise)

Remember, 1 kg of fat represents about 7700 Calories and as you lose weight your BMR reduces so you need to recalculate. 

Let's recalculate after each 5kg of weight lost. Again it's a good enough approach, but for greater accuracy you could do it every 2.5kg. 

Determine a manageable reduction in calories below those needed for BMR

5kg of weight represents 7700 x 5 = 38500 calories.

So to lose 5kg I need to create a deficit of 38500 calories. Exercise could burn some of it, but most if not all has to come from reducing calorie intake. I'm lazy; much easier and less time consuming for me to eat less than to take up an intense exercise program.

So let's look at how many calories under my BMR I have to be to lose that 5kg of weight over time.

It's simple division. 38500 / 30 days =1283 calorie reduction. That would mean an intake of only 2182 - 1283 = only 899, way below the suggested minimum.

So I looked at some other possible periods of time (I love a spreadsheet):
Daily deficit of 1283 Cals for 30 Days
Daily deficit of 856 Cals for 45 Days
Daily deficit of 642 Cals for 60 Days
Daily deficit of 558 Cals for 69 Days
Daily deficit of 475 Cals for 81 Days

I chose 642 for 60 days to lose my first 5kg.

I also set up my 3x 5kg step progression to my target weight and my final weight to maintain:


You can see that my maintenance calories reduce as I lose weight. If I continued at a 642 calorie deficit but recalculated using my new BMR maintenance calories I would breach the 1500 calorie guideline for the next 2 x 5kg steps.

Soon the seemingly odd periods of time I looked at will make sense. 

After 60 days of a 642 calorie deficit to my BMR of 2182, I switched to a 558 calorie deficit to my new BMR of 2099 calories, BUT...instead of doing it for 60 days I will hold it for 69 days to accumulate the 38,500 calories that will reduce my weight by 5kg.

The next step will be the third and final 5kg step and for that I will run a new deficit of 475 calories from my then new BMR of 2017 calories BUT...I will need to hold it for 81 days to lose the third lot of 5kg. 

As my weight and BMR reduce I extend the time I hold each calorie level to reduce the daily deficit to keep above the 1500 guideline.

To be more effective you could recalculate after every 2 or 2.5kg weight loss, or interpolate from the above table to reduce the calorie target as weight is lost.

Afterwards

My BMI will be normal, my Waist to Hip Ratio will be less than 1.0 and I will be able to increase my calorie intake from 1542 per day during the 3rd step to 1935, more than I will have eaten for 210 days.

Exercise to eat more

To earn 100 calories to spend on desert or wine, or a bigger steak, or a very (!) tiny cake with coffee, 30 minutes brisk walk or exercise bike workout will do the trick. Cake with coffee is generally a very  bad idea! But say once a week before a 30 minte walk...we've got to live!

Carb Timing

There are three aspects to carb timing.

First Have a VLC (Very Low Carb in this case - often used for Very Low Calorie) breakfast. The Glucose Goddess calls this a "savoury breakfast". Scrambled eggs with Cherry tomatoes and mushrooms for example. Or some cold chicken, 2 slices of cheese, 4 cherry tomatoes (and maybe an apple if needed). For morning tea also eat low carb foods like a protein bar, or other low GI (Glucose Index) foods. This means that your blood sugar should stay lower on average through most of the morning. More time "in range". A VLCarb breakfast also, surprisingly, causes a lower blood sugar peak for the following meal as well.

Eating everything else before you eat the higher carb foods in your meal helps slow the digestion of the carbs, lowering, but drawing out your postprandial (after eating) sugar peak.

Eating your highest carb meal so that you can exercise within 30 minutes of eating the carbs as described in Exercise Timing below.

Exercise Timing

The best exercise is the excercise that reduces a sugar peak after  high carb meal. Try to find a way to have your carbs at a time that will allow you to have a 20 minute moderate intensity excercise starting about 30 mnutes after you've eaten your carbs. It can help to eat all the other components of your meal first and have your carbs last, making it easier to start exercising within 30 minutes.

Sugar, Carbs and Nutrition - Protein, Fibre and Vitamin Supplementation

Because I am diabetic with insulin resistance (diagnosed by a glucose tolerance test at a pathology lab) I am on Metformin and I am reducing my carbs as well as my calories. That means there are issues with fibre intake being below the recommended range and maybe not getting a full range of vitamins and minerals. I use Psyllium husk (5 grams only, read the warnings about increasing water intake) to give me some additional fibre and am taking 1 multivitamin a day. I am eating less fruit and veg than I used to, but just because a food is good for you it doesn't mean you should keep eating more of it! The Norwood Surgery in UK did not find supplementation to be needed if a nutrient dense, low calorie diet was followed with gradual weigh loss. 

Carbs, Protein, Fibre and Alcohol

Different food types have different calories per gram:

Carbohydrates 4 cals /gm
Fats 9 cals/gm
Fibre 4 cals/gm

Some say that you don't count calories from fibre so you deduct every gram of fibre from total carbohydrates to get "Net Carbs". A number of Diabetes organisations do not recommend only counting net carbs on the basis if either that there is no supportive consensus or insufficient evidence to support a recommendation. I count all carbs as a result. The fruits and veges that are the best low sugar, low carb, low GI fruits and vegetables include
a) berries: eg blueberries, raspberries, strawberries, and blackberries (also good for anti-oxidants)
b) leafy greens: eg spinach, kale, and lettuce (also good for vitamins, minerals and fibre)
c) non-starchy vegetables: broccoli, carrots, and cucumbers (also good for vitamins, minerals and fibre)
d) avocado, 
e) broccoli (also good for vitamins, minerals and fibre)
f) cauliflower, (Can be grated or finely chopped and light ly coooked to make a rice substitute)
g) eggplant (also good for fibre), and
h) zucchini (also good for fibre).
BUT you still need to consider your total calorie intake and target deficit if you want to lose weight.

For low net carbs per 100 grams of food consider 

Alcohol is a bit vexed. The nutritional information is harder to come by. But some say beer is liquid bread and to be avoided completely. I found that XXXX Gold 3.5 mid strength beer is moderate and I could have a Stubby or schooner, or two middies over a couple of hours say once a week. And 1 250ml glass of red wine once a day, but I have 2 AFDs (Alcohol Free Days) each week. To have those alcoholic drinks I need reduce something else while trying to lose weight so as not to blow my carb target of 26% or my calorie target which is (at 87kg and 185cm) 1450 (approx a 500 calorie a day deficit)

Food diary

I use a food diary app loaded with most common Australian foods. Easy Diet Diary (available from Google Play Store). I set up standard recipes for Breakfast, Lunch, Baked vegetables, Salad, meats, my long white coffee, my common deserts, my glass of red, the beers I drink. The first few weeks were a bit tedious but now it only takes about 10 minutes a day to keep it up to date, mostly done while waiting for the coffee machine. (If it says on Google play store that it won't work, just contact the developer)

Low Carbohydrate Diets

The Norwood Surgery used the term "Low Carbohydrate Diet" as meaning a carbohydrate intake of less than 130 grams per day which means less that 520 calories from carbs in a diet of about 1700 calories per day and an eventual maintenance intake of about 1980 calories a day (about 26% when at maintenance stage). Other sources also mentioned the magic 26% of calories from carbs.

Prefer Low Glycaemic Index (GI) (slow sugar release) Carbs

Low GI foods include:

Whole grains: Brown rice, quinoa, whole-wheat pasta, oats, barley, millet, rye
Legumes: Beans, lentils, chickpeas, peas
Starchy vegetables: Sweet potatoes, butternut squash, yams, parsnips, carrots, potatoes (but most of these are so high in carbs it is better to just skip them or eat only say a total of 80 grams in any one meal)
Nuts and seeds: Almonds, walnuts, peanuts, chia seeds, flaxseeds
Dairy: Greek yogurt, cottage cheese, milk
Fruits: Apples, pears, berries, bananas (unripe), grapefruit

Frozen green beans are great for lazy people like me. Just microwave and eat. low calories, virtually no carbs, fibre, stave off hunger, cheap. 

Avoid High GI Foods

High GI foods include:

Refined grains: White rice, white bread, pasta, bagels, pastries
Sweets: Candy, cookies, cakes, ice cream, soda
Fruits: Bananas (ripe), watermelon, grapes, mangoes, pineapple
Potatoes: Mashed potatoes, French fries, potato chips
Legumes: Lentils (cooked), split peas (cooked)
Dairy: Milk, sugary yogurt, sweetened condensed milk

Some Great Substitutes

Grated or finely chopped cauliflower microwaved is a good low carb substitute for all rice. You can buy Frozen Riced Cauliflower instead but it is about 4 times the price but you save time and won't skin your knuckles on the grater). Using cauliflower this way means that you can have a generous smear of Patak's sauce over chicken on a bed of "rice" and keep your carbs way down compared to if you had it even on brown, let alone white, rice.

Zucchini strips from peeling through a zucchini are a good substitute for spaghetti for Bolognese. Or if you don't care about tradition just bulk up the "Bolognese" meat ragout with lots of low carb vegetables, what my mother used call "savoury mince". But don't have it on toast.

Lentils have half the calories of minced meat/ground beef but unfortunately for diabetics they are 23g/100 of carbs 15.3 g/100 of net carbs while minced meat is only virtually no carbs. Lentils seem to be a great substitute regarding calories and fat, but not so much for carbs. I find I am more carb constrained by my desire to keep carbs to 26% of my dietary intake of calories at 4 calories per carb. Lentils would be good if my constraint was calories or fats, especially saturated fats. (Fats are 9 calories per gram which is why the meat is much higher in calories).

Low carb noodles and their Carbs/Calories per 100 grams include:
Shiritaki 0/9
Zoodles 2.4/17
Kelp 3.6/10
Konjac 0.8/10 

Bean noodles are much higher than these with 17/80 (Carbs/Cals)

Ketosis

My diet does not induce ketosis in the way a ketogenic diet would. I am eating about 115 grams of carbs a day which means about 460 calories are coming from carbs. That's roughly 25-30%. To achieve ketosis most people will need to reduce their carb intake to 20-50 grams per day. That's only about 3 to 10% of calorie intake. Ketogenic diets are extreme and aside from some epilepsy I think they are unwarranted.

Very Low Calorie Diets

I am not into VLC. I am about building a habit of eating sensibly to gain and maintain my target weight. I break out socially occasionally, and it means either a little more exercise for a day or three and maybe a little more restricted intake for a day or two as well. 

Intermittent Fasting/Re-feeds

While there might be no real problem for most people with having a VLC day or even a few in a row, it may not be helpful if the consequence is having "Faturday" - a day of almost binge eating of foods that should only be consumed rarely and/or in small quantities. 

There is a benefit to a mix of intakes during the week including a day of higher than maintenance intake in terms of not letting metabolism get into a slowdown as a response to consistent low calorie intake. It may help avoid a plateau slowdown of weight loss, and reduce weight gain when you return to the normal maintenance intake based on normal base metabolism calculation. 

On the other hand, it will slow your weight loss by about 20% as your weekly deficit will be more like 2750 rather than 3500 calories (7 x 500). 

There can be a social element to having a "faturday"/re-feed when it involves a lunch or dinner with friends and that means feeling less deprived by the constraints of a diet. A brisk walk for 10 (or better still 30 minutes) after the meal can help offset the extra intake and more quickly reduce the post-prandial (post meal peak). Just park the car further from the restaurant, or walk around the block (maybe even 2 or 3 times ) before hopping in to drive home.

Shakes

Shakes can be a help but are not necessary. I am using the Man Shake sometimes for one meal a day, it adds to variety and variety makes life just a little bit more interesting. It ought be supplemented at other meals with elements that contain Omega 3 fatty acids, Vitamin C, Folate, Magnesium, Zinc, Antioxidants. Typical food elements for these include Salmon, nuts (almonds), berries (Black, Rasp, or Cran), green leafy vegetables (baby spinach is easy to use), oats and green beans. I try to balance out over a week.

Carbs and Blood Sugar

I have found by experiment and testing that if I keep my carbs at every meal below 42 grams, then I don't have a sugar peak of 10 or more. Chicken, eggs, salad, almonds, small steaks all help with keeping carbs to about 25-30% of calorie intake. One gram of carbs is 4 calories. 115 grams of carbs = 460 calories from carbs = 27% of 1703 daily calories. Rice, potatoes, sweet potato, pumpkin and bananas are very high in carbs and to be minimised. Greek yoghurt and tinned peaches (preferably) or pears (each in juice not syrup) is good for desert. Dark chocolate is much lower in carbs and even a couple of squares reduces the feeling of missing out. Mid strength beer seems to be the best choice for me if I am out, but only 1 (maybe two!) middies.

Food order

If you eat high sugar/high GI foods on an empty stomach they will be getting absorbed quickly into your blood stream as you move into the other foods in your meal. I have been told by someone who is a fitness / body fat /strength guru (Thank you, Robert) that the order of eating food can also have an impact. This was discovered through wearing a sugar patch (eg Freestyle Libre 2) and watching the effects in almost real time on a mobile phone app. The recommended order is effectively carbs and sugars last. The specific recommendation was salad with balsamic vinegar, protein such as chicken or steak, carbs last. It seems intuitive that having the carbs on a full stomach dilutes their absorption.

Muscle Wastage

When you lose weight some of the weight lost will be from muscle. Rebuilding muscle gets more difficult with age. When losing significant weight consider:

1. increase protein intake possibly using shakes
2. do more weight and resistance training.

It probably pays to increase your resistance/weight exercise when losing weight, more so if you are older and the plus side is you can then have more calories intake to offset those burnt. This is the case where you can net out your calories. 

In general, weightlifting for 30 minutes can burn between 90 and 126 calories, depending on a person’s body weight. So 40 minutes ought reliably burn off the calories from 1 large ripe cavendish banana. If you are right into weightlifting vigorous weight lifting for 30 minutes may burn between 180 to 252 calories, depending on a person’s body weight.

Fitness

Keep up or improve your aerobic fitness as you lose weight. This can be an opportunity to have more fruit - just eat it 15 minutes before you start actually training and do enough training to burn the pre-training calories so you don't get a sugar peak or ruin your sugar profile for 2 to 3 hours.

Twelve 12 minutes working on an exercise bike or brisk walking is about 120 calories which will burn off 1 large ripe cavendish banana. Dog walking is half that, so 25 minutes for a banana.

 If you have just one standard Mars bar then you need 25 minutes of brisk walking or cycling because there are 244 calories in 1 Mars Bar (53 g).

Recalculating Macros

The less often you recalculate your macros, the more time you will be using a less than optimal calorie deficit. A training and weight loss guru suggested that recalculating for every 5 kg lost was not really efficient so I am recalculating for every 2.5 kg lost.

Mix it up

At least once a week you should break out and eat more calories than otherwise. This reduces the chance of your body changing its metabolism (like going into power saving mode on a laptop) and the way it produces grehlin and leptin.

Grehlin and Leptin

Ghrelin and leptin are two hormones that play a key role in appetite regulation. Ghrelin is a hormone that is produced in the stomach and it increases appetite. Leptin is a hormone that is produced by fat cells and it decreases appetite.

Where does the weight go?

Matter changes form but is not destroyed. The chemistry of weight loss is that the weight lost is mainly exhaled as water vapour.

Breakfast

A zero/very low carb (VLC) breakfast will keep your blood sugar low so scrambled eggs with no toast and a black tea or coffee will extend your low blood sugar from your overnight fast for hours compared to a breakfast of cereal and fruit. If you feel the need for some carbs, have a small helping of berries or fruit (not banana or mango) after the scrambled eggs.

Skipping breakfast goes against my intuition because I grew up with "Breakfast is the most important meal of the day as it sets you up for the rest of the day", and that makes sense. 

If you will be doing a 10 minute brisk walk to transport on your way to work, starting within 15 minutes of breakfast, a cereal based breakfast might be less of an issue for your blood sugar peak and profile - see Fitness above. 

Glucose Goddess 4 Main Hacks

These are in the same order as in her 2nd book "The Glucose Goddess Method". Add a new hack every week.

1. A low carb savoury breakfast (eg scrambled eggs and mushrooms with cherry tomatoes)
2. A tablespoon of vinegar (eg apple cider vinegar) each day, preferably before eating something sweet or starchy. Dilute it, drink it through a straw, protect your teeth.
3. Add a "Veggie Starter" to a meal each day. Salads count. It can be in addition to what you would normally eat at that meal. It should make up 30% of the what you eat at that meal. Salad with a dressing with 1 tablespoon of vinegar kills two hacks with one meal. Veggies can be raw.(eg a bitter leaf salad with Greek yoghurt as dressing.
4. Move (soon) after eating - even just 10 minutes. (eg A walk around the block) (Do it after the meal with most carbs to blunt sugar peaks, lower average blood sugar)

A day.

I don't particularly enjoy cooking or shopping so I like low effort eating. 

Test fasting blood sugar. Enter it in diary or spreadsheet.

250ml water - hydration kickstart

Berocca  soluble tablet and 500mg chewable vitamin C (because we are cutting some high sugar high GI foods)

White Coffee

For the balance of the day, if you are hungry and can't hang out to the next scheduled food, you can have 50gms of airfried chicken with salt pepper and paprika and a light spray of olive oil as an additional snack and you can do this multiple times a day if you really need to.

Breakfast

Scrambled Eggs (2 per person, only 10g pp butter, 1 tblspn milk per egg, salt, pepper). No toast.

or 

20gm Plus Fibre cereal, 5 gms oats, 5 gms Psyllium husk, 120gms milk, 20gms water plus 2 slices canned peaches from juice not syrup, or 8 blueberries or half a canned pear (from juice not syrup) 

and

white coffee or tea or 250ml water

AM Snack

3 Ikea meatballs 54gms

or 

50 gms chicken with salt, pepper, paprika, light spray of olive oil, airfried (180C for 8 then shake and another 7 minutes) (or baked in oven)

and

white coffee or tea or 250ml water

Lunch

Bowl: 2 slices tasty cheese, 1 medium to large tomato, 2 ave baby beets (or 1 larger and 1 smaller), and 1 tuna tempter 95gm

80gms Greek yoghurt over 2 slices of canned peaches in juice, not in syrup.

White coffee or tea or 250mls water.

PM Snack

If cereal for breakfast, 1 boiled egg and handful of roasted almonds. After 10 mins if still hungry have a 2nd boiled egg, but not before 10 minutes.

White tea or coffee or 250ml water.

Dinner

120 gms airfried chicken seasoned with salt, pepper and paprika, or 100gms steak lightly seasoned

With either the steak or chicken have:
20gms sweet potato, 60 gms carrot, 100gms cauliflower, 80gms zucchini

or

Bolognese sauce with lots of vegetables chopped in including mushrooms, carrots, capsicum, Use thinly sliced (like peelings) of zucchini as pasta.

glass of red wine 250ml

(wait 15 mins)

80gms Greek yoghurt over 2 slices of canned peaches in juice, not in syrup.

(wait 15 mins)

2 squares of old gold dark chocolate

White coffee or tea or 250 mls water.

Late snack

Do not have any carbs before going to bed. 

Do not have caffeine within 3 hours of going to bed

If you really need to a snack: 

250mls water

50gms of the usual airfried chicken or a boiled egg (no more than  3 eggs in any one day) or a handful of roasted almonds

You need never feel hungry!!!

Reading

"What predicts drug-free type 2 diabetes remission? Insights from an 8-year general practice service evaluation of a lower carbohydrate diet with weight loss "
Dr David Unwin et all
Norwood surgery, UK
https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/bmjnph/early/2023/01/02/bmjnph-2022-000544.full.pdf 

"Pure White and Deadly: How Sugar is Killing Us"
is a 1972 book by John Yudkin, a British nutritionist and former Chair of Nutrition at Queen Elizabeth College, London.

"Glucose Revolution"
by Jessie Inchauspé, a French biochemist and author. She writes about the importance of balancing one's blood sugar for optimal health.