Thursday, November 24, 2011

2011 Recovery (?) To Date (Day 44).

The 2011 bear market has so far bottomed at -22% on 26 September 2011.

While it feels like we have just had a failed bear market rally, it may be that we are still in a recovery from the 2011 bear market after 44 days.

Here is a chart of the first 100 days of recoveries from bottoms after falls of more than 20% since 1984, treating the bottom day as 0 and registering all recoveries in terms of percentage gains.

The chart shows that while we are at a point which is the lowest recovery at Day 44 we remain above the zero line and one recovery has been lower until Day 38 and another dipped lower for Days 58 to 63. in summary, we could still be in a recovery from the 2011 bottom, even though on fundamentals I am expecting otherwise.

While I am expecting to get triggered to sell within a few days if there are further falls, today's bounce has so far stopped me selling. I am very bearish, expect to sell based on timing strategies based mainly on moving averages and a modified "Turtle Trading" strategy and foresee a 1987/1991 market and economy double dip situation, we can't overlook the possibility that the recovery from the September 2011 bottom will continue and we should be buying the almost despair about Europe and mixed feelings about the US and China.

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